AETOS投研部主管接受英国路透社采访

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　　路透社

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　　AETOS

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　　本周四（2月9日），AETOS艾拓思投研部主管Glenn Yin应邀接受了英国路透社（Reuters）的采访。Glenn针对本周澳洲股市、央行货币政策以及美国就业数据等问题进行了回答。

　　The Head of Research and Analysis of AETOS Capital Group, Glenn Yin, accepted an interview from the London-based media giant Reuters, and provided commentary regarding the Australian share market, central bank policies as well as employment data in the United States.

　　PART 01

　　澳洲股指 ASX 200

　　路透社

　　澳洲股指ASX 200今天出现了全盘下跌，您认为这样的市场动态背后是受什么样的投资情绪影响呢？

　　Reuters

　　ASX 200 is falling today. What do you think is the investor sentiment and what factors might be driving that sentiment？

　　Glenn

　　我认为目前市场的投资情绪属于谨慎乐观，澳洲股指ASX 200距离历史最高位仅有200点左右的距离，而美国三大股指分别在2021年末和2022年初就已经触顶。不仅如此，澳美股市的步伐差受基本面因素影响而进一步扩大，比如2022-2023财年即将登陆澳洲的30万净移民，不仅有望让澳洲避开本轮全球衰退，而且新增人口对房屋的需求也推动了建筑行业的蓬勃发展，昨天上午公布财报的Boral（ASX：BLD）就是一个很好的例子，该公司录得野兽般的利润增长，股价高开高收12%。

　　Glenn

　　I think investors are being cautiously optimistic at the moment, the ASX 200 is just around 200pts away from its historical high while its US counterparts have peaked in late 2021/early 2022. This cyclical divergence is further widened by the fundamentals: a near record influx of net overseas migrants in 22/23FY is propelling Australia away from global recession, and this optimism was evident in yesterdays monstrous profits from construction material supplier Boral and P&C insurer Suncorp.

　　PART 02

　　金属及矿业板块 AXMM

　　路透社

　　虽然铁矿石价格在上涨，但是AXMM（ASX 300 金属及矿业板块）今天出现了下跌，您认为是什么原因导致的？

　　Reuters

　　AXMM is falling even though iron ore is up, why do you think that is？

　　Glenn

　　我认为今天澳股的抛售是全盘性的，并非针对个别行业或板块。我们知道原材料板块在澳股大盘中的占比非常显著，并且在帮助澳洲经济重回疫情前水平的道路上立下了汗马功劳。正如我刚才所说，即将登陆的大量海外人口将激增消费者对澳洲房地产的需求，而最新出炉的地产数据却非常不乐观，各大首府城市的出租房空置率已经跌破个位数，所以这些条件都将成为推动建材需求的核心因素，最终利好澳洲的建筑企业。

　　Glenn

　　I think it‘s a broad-based decline that can’t be offset by the materials sector alone today, the massive weight and strength in miners have been powering the ASX through turbulent conditions since global economic conditions gradually returned to pre-pandemic levels. As discussed in Q1, we have an estimated 300k net overseas migrants (NOM) flocking into Australia where a housing supply crisis has driven rental vacancies below single digits, these new demands will eventually materialise and benefit Australias construction sector. I think investors are actively pricing these variables in.

　　PART 03

　　澳洲央行的货币政策

　　路透社

　　您认为澳洲央行的货币政策是否有对澳洲经济造成衰退的风险？

　　Reuters

　　Do you see recession risks that the central bank's policy tightening pose impacting Australia's economic growth？

　　Glenn

　　澳大利亚的货币政策比其他发达经济体要晚不止半拍，我们的加息周期在启动的时候就比美联储晚了大约60天，然后我们又成为G20集团中首个降档的经济体。虽然这种提前转鸽的策略保护了我们的房地产行业，同时也让通胀有机可乘，在2022年第四季度冲破33年新高，达到了7.8%。我认为澳联储的策略也是一把双刃剑，在保持经济高速运转的同时帮助澳洲避开全球衰退。澳大利亚的真正敌人，其实是通胀，而不是衰退。我们不要忘记，在疫情爆发前的30年中，澳大利亚一次都没有进入衰退。

　　Glenn

　　Australia once again lags its global peers in central bank policies. We started our hiking cycle about 60 days later than the Fed, and while the Fed, the BoE and ECB were aggressively tightening their monetary policies, Australia became the first to downshift. This late-arrival and early-departure strategy did provide protection to the housing market, but also loosened the lid on our inflation which hit 7.8% in 2022Q4, refreshing a 33-year-high. I think Australia could quite possibly miss a recession, we have to remember Australia had successfully dodged all recessions in the 30 years leading up to the pandemic. In terms of RBA policies, inflation is the real enemy.

　　PART 04

　　美国失业救济金数据

　　路透社

　　今天晚间将公布美国失业救济金数据，您认为投资者都应该注意些什么？

　　Reuters

　　What is the mood ahead of the U.S. Jobless Claims data due today？ What are investors expecting？

　　Glenn

　　我认为许多市场参与者还没有走出上周五非农数据的震荡，美国劳工市场在1月新增51.7万个岗位，几乎达到了12月的两倍，大幅超出市场预期。极强的就业数据也激发了市场的避险情绪，因为强劲的就业数据完全可能重燃美联储转鹰并连续加息的可能性。所以今晚的数据将成为全球投资者的重点关注对象。

　　Glenn

　　I think most investors are still in shock after last Fridays job data. Having added over half a million jobs in January, the extremely strong data reignited fears that demand-driven inflation could bite back and trigger further selloffs in risk assets. So the Jobless Claims data will be closely watched by investors globally. Any decline may suggest further strength in the labor market and may persuade the Fed to switch on the hawks.

　　PART 05

　　澳股未来一周走势

　　路透社

　　您认为下周澳洲股市的走势如何，有没有什么特别需要投资者注意的？

　　Reuters

　　How do you think next week will go for ASX？ Are investors looking forward to anything specific？

　　Glenn

　　下周澳股的财报季值得每一个投资者关注，一些重量级蓝筹股，比如联邦银行、西太银行和国民银行，以及福特斯克金属集团等公司都将公布财报。其中几大商业银行的财报将释放许多关键信息，比如在澳联储连续加息的情况下，贷款可负担性是否出现明显恶化，这些变量有没有影响在ASX 200中占比巨大的金融板块？这些变量同样可能成为主导澳元在未来一周走势的基石。

　　Glenn

　　Next week we will have heavyweights reporting their earnings. I would pay very close attention to the nations largest banks CBA, NAB and WBC as performance of these cyclical assets are good indicators of the strength of the economy and their correlation with interest rates will bring guidance into mortgage serviceability and may even generate decisive momentum for the Aussie dollar.

　　路透社采访原文